Often times, government regulations rarely translate into tremendous revenue growth in a global market however, this is not the case in the integral horsepower low voltage (LV) motor market where revenues for IE3 Premium Efficiency (and the equivalent NEMA Premium™) are on course to almost double by 2018 to over $8,000 million globally. Major LV motor markets are becoming more and more regulated towards IE2 and IE3 motors, as this dynamic has signaled that the eminent decline of the lowest efficiency class motor market, IE1, has begun in earnest.
The IE1 market is currently the largest regulated LV motor market in the world in terms of revenues and units, with the majority concentrated in the Asia Pacific, the Russian Federation & CIS, and smaller markets where no energy efficiency regulations exist. Major regions have been shifting out of the IE1 market since the US began in 2002, and this has catalyzed revenue growth in the form of more expensive IE2 and IE3 LV motors being sold than in previous years. Typically, a regional transition to the next higher efficiency class of LV motor can take six years or more after the official start date has been announced, with the peak of the transition occurring in year three or four. Such is the case with the IE3 market, as the US and Canada are currently phasing out IE2 and IE1 motors, with the European Union, Japan and China following suit in 2015, late 2016, and 2017, respectively.
Analyst Mark Meza states "IE3 revenues have been growing at 3-digit rates since 2010, as the current IE3 markets are fortuitously located in regional markets that have been quick to recover from the global recession, and have not experienced further economic difficulties as seen in the IE2 markets of the European Union and Brazil over the past few years."
In 2017, the rapidly ascending IE3 market is forecast to be almost equal in revenues to the outgoing IE1 market. At this point in time, IHS predicts that the two motor segments will be headed in opposite directions. It is interesting to note that while revenues for IE3 will overtake IE1 revenues in 2017, units for IE1 are still predicted to be double the units in the IE3 market. Meza adds "From the revenue and units comparison of these two markets over time, it is clear to see the revenue-enhancing effect of energy efficiency regulations that operate independently of the market's demand."
According to growth forecasts, high revenue growth in the IE3 market will begin to cool off significantly in North America just as it begins to heat up in the Eurozone, Japan and China barring any further major economic downturns to these newest players in the IE3 market.